Nullmodell (2-Level)

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) 
##    Data: cee04 (Number of observations: 4649) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.45      0.08     0.32     0.63 1.00    23329    25666
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept     4.03      0.10     3.84     4.22 1.00    23739    26591
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     2.26      0.02     2.21     2.31 1.00    28976    28758
## nu       88.34     22.38    52.41   139.56 1.00    29829    28115
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 1

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec 
##    Data: cee04 (Number of observations: 4649) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.46      0.07     0.34     0.63 1.00    20360    25154
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                  Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept            4.08      0.10     3.89     4.27 1.00    16896    23492
## trustc               1.10      0.06     0.97     1.22 1.00    29453    29402
## stfgovc              1.48      0.08     1.33     1.64 1.00    29549    29310
## outcomec             1.10      0.07     0.97     1.24 1.00    29599    28661
## trustc:stfgovc      -0.32      0.11    -0.54    -0.10 1.00    29498    28803
## stfgovc:outcomec    -0.10      0.11    -0.32     0.11 1.00    30082    29781
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.58      0.03     1.53     1.64 1.00    29674    29494
## nu        9.83      1.40     7.56    13.03 1.00    29205    28967
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 2

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov 
##    Data: cee04 (Number of observations: 4649) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.48      0.08     0.35     0.65 1.00    17874    24977
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.18      0.16     3.87     4.50 1.00
## trustc                            1.09      0.06     0.96     1.21 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.50      0.08     1.35     1.66 1.00
## outcomec                          1.03      0.07     0.89     1.17 1.00
## ageac                             0.01      0.14    -0.26     0.28 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.09      0.05    -0.19     0.01 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass     0.11      0.10    -0.08     0.30 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.09      0.12    -0.14     0.32 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.05      0.10    -0.14     0.24 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers           -0.01      0.11    -0.22     0.20 1.00
## eduyrsc                           0.08      0.06    -0.05     0.21 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.16      0.05     0.06     0.27 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                -0.08      0.07    -0.22     0.07 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.29      0.12    -0.54    -0.05 1.00
## socialistsocialist               -0.05      0.09    -0.23     0.12 1.00
## votgovvoted                      -0.05      0.06    -0.17     0.07 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.29      0.11    -0.50    -0.07 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.11      0.11    -0.32     0.10 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        21554    26509
## trustc                           29267    29395
## stfgovc                          29061    30048
## outcomec                         29413    29109
## ageac                            28117    28421
## gndrfemale                       30076    28449
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    27600    28757
## class5Smallbusinessowners        25841    26683
## class5Skilledworkers             26653    28562
## class5Unskilledworkers           26570    28633
## eduyrsc                          28479    29566
## hincfel2good                     30090    29763
## hincsrca2stateaid                29068    29529
## socialistoldsocialist            28594    28638
## socialistsocialist               27873    29483
## votgovvoted                      29759    29511
## trustc:stfgovc                   29657    29538
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29385    29798
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.58      0.03     1.52     1.63 1.00    28911    29635
## nu       10.12      1.48     7.74    13.49 1.00    29450    28579
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 3

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec 
##    Data: cee04 (Number of observations: 4649) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.47      0.08     0.35     0.65 1.00    18390    24724
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.14      0.16     3.82     4.46 1.00
## trustc                            1.00      0.07     0.87     1.13 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.49      0.08     1.33     1.64 1.00
## outcomec                          0.96      0.07     0.82     1.10 1.00
## ageac                             0.07      0.14    -0.20     0.34 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.09      0.05    -0.19     0.02 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass     0.17      0.10    -0.02     0.36 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.13      0.12    -0.10     0.35 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.12      0.10    -0.06     0.31 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.06      0.11    -0.15     0.27 1.00
## eduyrsc                           0.01      0.07    -0.12     0.14 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.12      0.05     0.01     0.23 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                -0.06      0.07    -0.20     0.09 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.30      0.12    -0.54    -0.06 1.00
## socialistsocialist               -0.05      0.09    -0.22     0.12 1.00
## votgovvoted                      -0.05      0.06    -0.16     0.07 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.36      0.06     0.25     0.46 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.26      0.05    -0.36    -0.15 1.00
## freehmsc                          0.08      0.05    -0.03     0.18 1.00
## ipeqoptc                          0.02      0.05    -0.08     0.13 1.00
## impfreec                          0.02      0.05    -0.09     0.12 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.25      0.11    -0.46    -0.03 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.11      0.11    -0.32     0.10 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        21465    26144
## trustc                           29639    29734
## stfgovc                          28447    28664
## outcomec                         29861    29942
## ageac                            27767    28550
## gndrfemale                       29921    28999
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    26766    28735
## class5Smallbusinessowners        27533    28300
## class5Skilledworkers             26901    27851
## class5Unskilledworkers           26818    28886
## eduyrsc                          28618    29259
## hincfel2good                     27950    29272
## hincsrca2stateaid                28640    28738
## socialistoldsocialist            26373    29291
## socialistsocialist               28002    28664
## votgovvoted                      29192    28896
## ppltrstc                         30178    29655
## gincdifc                         29459    28452
## freehmsc                         29511    29383
## ipeqoptc                         30269    29285
## impfreec                         29279    30178
## trustc:stfgovc                   29356    29309
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29198    29590
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.56      0.03     1.51     1.62 1.00    28947    29192
## nu        9.95      1.42     7.67    13.18 1.00    29302    28885
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 4

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec + rankgm + neggm + gincdifgm + impfreegm + ipeqoptgm 
##    Data: cee04 (Number of observations: 4649) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.20      0.05     0.11     0.32 1.00    23014    26458
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.13      0.14     3.86     4.40 1.00
## trustc                            1.00      0.07     0.87     1.13 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.49      0.08     1.33     1.64 1.00
## outcomec                          0.96      0.07     0.82     1.10 1.00
## ageac                             0.04      0.14    -0.23     0.31 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.09      0.05    -0.19     0.02 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass     0.17      0.10    -0.02     0.36 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.12      0.12    -0.11     0.35 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.12      0.10    -0.06     0.31 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.06      0.11    -0.16     0.27 1.00
## eduyrsc                           0.01      0.07    -0.12     0.14 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.12      0.05     0.01     0.23 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                -0.05      0.07    -0.19     0.10 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.28      0.12    -0.52    -0.03 1.00
## socialistsocialist               -0.04      0.09    -0.21     0.13 1.00
## votgovvoted                      -0.04      0.06    -0.16     0.08 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.36      0.06     0.25     0.47 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.26      0.05    -0.36    -0.16 1.00
## freehmsc                          0.07      0.05    -0.03     0.18 1.00
## ipeqoptc                          0.02      0.05    -0.08     0.13 1.00
## impfreec                          0.02      0.05    -0.09     0.12 1.00
## rankgm                           -0.11      0.11    -0.32     0.11 1.00
## neggm                            -0.78      0.15    -1.08    -0.48 1.00
## gincdifgm                         0.05      0.15    -0.25     0.35 1.00
## impfreegm                         0.15      0.15    -0.16     0.45 1.00
## ipeqoptgm                        -0.20      0.20    -0.60     0.20 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.24      0.11    -0.46    -0.02 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.11      0.11    -0.33     0.10 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        29751    28736
## trustc                           29233    29147
## stfgovc                          29264    29676
## outcomec                         29398    29560
## ageac                            29749    29210
## gndrfemale                       29224    29056
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    28835    29844
## class5Smallbusinessowners        28919    29228
## class5Skilledworkers             29131    29511
## class5Unskilledworkers           28955    29183
## eduyrsc                          28966    29147
## hincfel2good                     29422    27389
## hincsrca2stateaid                28301    29286
## socialistoldsocialist            29685    29570
## socialistsocialist               29108    28854
## votgovvoted                      27994    29111
## ppltrstc                         28995    28591
## gincdifc                         28617    28874
## freehmsc                         28711    28210
## ipeqoptc                         28438    28580
## impfreec                         29319    28890
## rankgm                           28923    29295
## neggm                            28094    28696
## gincdifgm                        28617    29228
## impfreegm                        28648    28476
## ipeqoptgm                        28032    28405
## trustc:stfgovc                   29416    29350
## stfgovc:outcomec                 28970    28860
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.57      0.03     1.51     1.62 1.00    28420    28841
## nu       10.21      1.49     7.82    13.61 1.00    29770    29395
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 5

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec + gdpngm + uergm + yempgm + hhincgm + neggm + gincdifgm + impfreegm + ipeqoptgm 
##    Data: cee04 (Number of observations: 4649) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.23      0.06     0.13     0.37 1.00    22310    26251
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.13      0.14     3.86     4.41 1.00
## trustc                            1.00      0.07     0.87     1.13 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.49      0.08     1.33     1.64 1.00
## outcomec                          0.96      0.07     0.82     1.09 1.00
## ageac                             0.05      0.14    -0.22     0.32 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.09      0.05    -0.19     0.01 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass     0.17      0.10    -0.02     0.36 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.12      0.12    -0.11     0.35 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.12      0.10    -0.06     0.31 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.06      0.11    -0.16     0.27 1.00
## eduyrsc                           0.01      0.07    -0.12     0.14 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.12      0.05     0.01     0.23 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                -0.05      0.07    -0.19     0.10 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.29      0.12    -0.53    -0.04 1.00
## socialistsocialist               -0.04      0.09    -0.22     0.13 1.00
## votgovvoted                      -0.04      0.06    -0.16     0.08 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.36      0.06     0.25     0.47 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.26      0.05    -0.36    -0.15 1.00
## freehmsc                          0.07      0.05    -0.03     0.18 1.00
## ipeqoptc                          0.02      0.05    -0.08     0.13 1.00
## impfreec                          0.02      0.05    -0.09     0.12 1.00
## gdpngm                            0.01      0.14    -0.26     0.29 1.00
## uergm                            -0.11      0.26    -0.63     0.42 1.00
## yempgm                            0.20      0.28    -0.35     0.76 1.00
## hhincgm                          -0.03      0.23    -0.49     0.42 1.00
## neggm                            -0.75      0.21    -1.17    -0.34 1.00
## gincdifgm                         0.02      0.20    -0.38     0.43 1.00
## impfreegm                         0.16      0.19    -0.21     0.54 1.00
## ipeqoptgm                        -0.22      0.25    -0.71     0.28 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.24      0.11    -0.46    -0.02 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.11      0.11    -0.33     0.10 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        29029    29633
## trustc                           29606    28993
## stfgovc                          30134    29470
## outcomec                         29725    28851
## ageac                            28565    29490
## gndrfemale                       28562    27899
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    28640    28514
## class5Smallbusinessowners        28087    29270
## class5Skilledworkers             28749    27454
## class5Unskilledworkers           28935    29150
## eduyrsc                          29376    29077
## hincfel2good                     28149    28104
## hincsrca2stateaid                29141    29204
## socialistoldsocialist            28742    29069
## socialistsocialist               29061    29190
## votgovvoted                      28808    27771
## ppltrstc                         28378    29276
## gincdifc                         28907    28573
## freehmsc                         29184    28875
## ipeqoptc                         29036    28600
## impfreec                         28130    27544
## gdpngm                           28652    28580
## uergm                            28735    28497
## yempgm                           28261    28848
## hhincgm                          29128    27834
## neggm                            28142    27727
## gincdifgm                        29232    28964
## impfreegm                        28863    27502
## ipeqoptgm                        28372    28470
## trustc:stfgovc                   29810    29548
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29729    29931
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.57      0.03     1.51     1.62 1.00    29872    29842
## nu       10.15      1.47     7.78    13.55 1.00    30055    29553
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Copyright:
Benedikt Philipp Kleer, 2022 (Online-Appendix zur Promotion, eingereicht am 14. September 2022, Fachbereich 03, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen).