Nullmodell (2-Level)

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) 
##    Data: cee12 (Number of observations: 4818) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.55      0.09     0.39     0.76 1.00    20751    24629
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept     4.72      0.11     4.49     4.94 1.00    18871    25007
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     2.36      0.02     2.31     2.41 1.00    29809    29113
## nu       94.87     23.30    57.45   147.39 1.00    29708    29597
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 1

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + demunc + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + trustc:demunc 
##    Data: cee12 (Number of observations: 4818) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.56      0.09     0.41     0.76 1.00    16535    24384
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                  Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept            4.75      0.12     4.53     4.98 1.00    11771    18179
## demunc               0.46      0.05     0.37     0.56 1.00    29148    28809
## trustc               1.10      0.06     0.97     1.22 1.00    29359    29071
## stfgovc              1.77      0.08     1.62     1.92 1.00    28509    29249
## outcomec             1.14      0.07     1.00     1.28 1.00    30181    29972
## trustc:stfgovc      -0.26      0.11    -0.48    -0.04 1.00    29560    29137
## stfgovc:outcomec    -0.20      0.11    -0.42     0.01 1.00    28864    29309
## demunc:trustc        0.52      0.10     0.32     0.73 1.00    29357    29393
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.55      0.03     1.49     1.60 1.00    28757    28869
## nu       10.36      1.50     7.95    13.83 1.00    29134    29020
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 2

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + demunc + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + trustc:demunc + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov 
##    Data: cee12 (Number of observations: 4818) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.55      0.09     0.41     0.76 1.00    17726    24492
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.62      0.16     4.30     4.93 1.00
## demunc                            0.45      0.05     0.36     0.55 1.00
## trustc                            1.10      0.06     0.97     1.22 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.74      0.08     1.59     1.90 1.00
## outcomec                          1.10      0.07     0.95     1.24 1.00
## ageac                            -0.13      0.14    -0.40     0.14 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.09      0.05    -0.19     0.01 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.05      0.09    -0.22     0.12 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.01      0.11    -0.20     0.22 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.05      0.08    -0.12     0.21 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.12      0.09    -0.06     0.31 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.03      0.06    -0.14     0.09 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.19      0.05     0.08     0.29 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                -0.00      0.07    -0.15     0.14 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist             0.01      0.13    -0.25     0.26 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.02      0.09    -0.15     0.19 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.10      0.05    -0.00     0.21 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.27      0.11    -0.49    -0.05 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.18      0.11    -0.39     0.04 1.00
## demunc:trustc                     0.53      0.10     0.32     0.73 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        17964    23836
## demunc                           29368    29086
## trustc                           29643    29128
## stfgovc                          29876    29162
## outcomec                         29573    29168
## ageac                            27592    28561
## gndrfemale                       29787    29049
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    27274    28887
## class5Smallbusinessowners        27330    27819
## class5Skilledworkers             25848    28201
## class5Unskilledworkers           25917    27383
## eduyrsc                          27973    28931
## hincfel2good                     30402    29690
## hincsrca2stateaid                27870    28777
## socialistoldsocialist            28070    27465
## socialistsocialist               27602    27594
## votgovvoted                      30210    28835
## trustc:stfgovc                   28808    29251
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29571    29269
## demunc:trustc                    29485    29272
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.55      0.03     1.50     1.61 1.00    29524    29251
## nu       11.18      1.77     8.37    15.28 1.00    28945    28230
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 3

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + demunc + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + trustc:demunc + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec 
##    Data: cee12 (Number of observations: 4818) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.56      0.09     0.42     0.77 1.00    18229    24868
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.59      0.16     4.27     4.90 1.00
## demunc                            0.49      0.05     0.38     0.59 1.00
## trustc                            1.05      0.06     0.92     1.17 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.74      0.08     1.59     1.89 1.00
## outcomec                          1.08      0.07     0.93     1.22 1.00
## ageac                            -0.16      0.14    -0.43     0.12 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.07      0.05    -0.16     0.03 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.04      0.09    -0.21     0.13 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.00      0.11    -0.21     0.21 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.07      0.08    -0.09     0.23 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.15      0.09    -0.04     0.33 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.05      0.06    -0.17     0.07 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.17      0.06     0.06     0.28 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.02      0.07    -0.12     0.16 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist             0.02      0.13    -0.23     0.27 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.03      0.09    -0.14     0.20 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.09      0.05    -0.02     0.19 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.16      0.05     0.06     0.27 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.26      0.05    -0.36    -0.16 1.00
## freehmsc                         -0.22      0.05    -0.32    -0.11 1.00
## ipeqoptc                         -0.00      0.05    -0.11     0.10 1.00
## impfreec                          0.10      0.05    -0.00     0.21 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.25      0.11    -0.47    -0.04 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.14      0.11    -0.36     0.08 1.00
## demunc:trustc                     0.53      0.10     0.32     0.73 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        19447    24561
## demunc                           29215    28450
## trustc                           28797    29169
## stfgovc                          28732    28973
## outcomec                         29190    29081
## ageac                            28139    29146
## gndrfemale                       29383    29108
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    27881    27668
## class5Smallbusinessowners        28172    29152
## class5Skilledworkers             27510    29000
## class5Unskilledworkers           27781    28852
## eduyrsc                          28663    29231
## hincfel2good                     29886    28796
## hincsrca2stateaid                29790    29284
## socialistoldsocialist            28559    29431
## socialistsocialist               27995    29122
## votgovvoted                      29849    28930
## ppltrstc                         29583    29398
## gincdifc                         30535    28419
## freehmsc                         29252    29244
## ipeqoptc                         30126    29592
## impfreec                         29631    29077
## trustc:stfgovc                   29319    28908
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29143    28855
## demunc:trustc                    29710    29440
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.54      0.03     1.49     1.60 1.00    29283    29388
## nu       11.07      1.76     8.32    15.16 1.00    29001    29308
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 4

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + demunc + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + trustc:demunc + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec + rankgm + neggm + gincdifgm + impfreegm + ipeqoptgm 
##    Data: cee12 (Number of observations: 4818) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.20      0.05     0.11     0.31 1.00    24449    27240
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.56      0.12     4.33     4.80 1.00
## demunc                            0.48      0.05     0.38     0.59 1.00
## trustc                            1.04      0.06     0.92     1.17 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.74      0.08     1.58     1.89 1.00
## outcomec                          1.08      0.07     0.94     1.22 1.00
## ageac                            -0.19      0.14    -0.47     0.08 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.06      0.05    -0.16     0.03 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.03      0.09    -0.20     0.14 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.00      0.11    -0.21     0.21 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.08      0.08    -0.08     0.24 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.16      0.09    -0.02     0.34 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.04      0.06    -0.16     0.07 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.16      0.05     0.06     0.27 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.03      0.07    -0.11     0.18 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist             0.05      0.13    -0.21     0.30 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.05      0.09    -0.12     0.22 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.09      0.05    -0.01     0.20 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.17      0.05     0.06     0.27 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.26      0.05    -0.36    -0.16 1.00
## freehmsc                         -0.22      0.05    -0.32    -0.12 1.00
## ipeqoptc                         -0.00      0.05    -0.11     0.10 1.00
## impfreec                          0.10      0.05    -0.00     0.20 1.00
## rankgm                            0.15      0.11    -0.08     0.37 1.00
## neggm                            -0.90      0.17    -1.23    -0.57 1.00
## gincdifgm                         0.04      0.19    -0.32     0.42 1.00
## impfreegm                         0.01      0.21    -0.40     0.45 1.00
## ipeqoptgm                         0.08      0.24    -0.40     0.55 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.24      0.11    -0.46    -0.03 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.14      0.11    -0.36     0.07 1.00
## demunc:trustc                     0.53      0.10     0.32     0.73 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        29348    29594
## demunc                           29460    28876
## trustc                           29264    29600
## stfgovc                          29762    28983
## outcomec                         29039    28805
## ageac                            30343    29870
## gndrfemale                       28446    28681
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    29125    29598
## class5Smallbusinessowners        28691    29347
## class5Skilledworkers             28978    29281
## class5Unskilledworkers           29265    28593
## eduyrsc                          28370    29718
## hincfel2good                     29565    28876
## hincsrca2stateaid                28573    28502
## socialistoldsocialist            30208    29455
## socialistsocialist               29960    27871
## votgovvoted                      28169    28341
## ppltrstc                         28282    28218
## gincdifc                         29170    28732
## freehmsc                         28945    28452
## ipeqoptc                         29221    28837
## impfreec                         27924    28913
## rankgm                           29339    29393
## neggm                            29531    29593
## gincdifgm                        28966    29802
## impfreegm                        28736    29189
## ipeqoptgm                        28166    28142
## trustc:stfgovc                   29766    29929
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29798    29447
## demunc:trustc                    28662    28188
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.54      0.03     1.49     1.59 1.00    28824    28996
## nu       10.91      1.69     8.23    14.84 1.00    29712    29390
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 5

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + demunc + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + trustc:demunc + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec + gdpngm + uergm + yempgm + hhincgm + neggm + gincdifgm + impfreegm + ipeqoptgm 
##    Data: cee12 (Number of observations: 4818) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.22      0.06     0.13     0.35 1.00    23388    27283
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.57      0.12     4.33     4.81 1.00
## demunc                            0.48      0.05     0.38     0.59 1.00
## trustc                            1.04      0.06     0.92     1.17 1.00
## stfgovc                           1.74      0.08     1.58     1.89 1.00
## outcomec                          1.08      0.07     0.94     1.22 1.00
## ageac                            -0.18      0.14    -0.46     0.09 1.00
## gndrfemale                       -0.06      0.05    -0.16     0.03 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.03      0.09    -0.20     0.14 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.00      0.11    -0.21     0.21 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.08      0.08    -0.09     0.25 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers            0.16      0.09    -0.02     0.34 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.04      0.06    -0.16     0.07 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.16      0.06     0.06     0.27 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.03      0.07    -0.11     0.17 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist             0.04      0.13    -0.21     0.30 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.04      0.09    -0.13     0.21 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.09      0.05    -0.01     0.20 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.16      0.05     0.06     0.27 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.26      0.05    -0.36    -0.16 1.00
## freehmsc                         -0.22      0.05    -0.32    -0.12 1.00
## ipeqoptc                         -0.00      0.05    -0.11     0.10 1.00
## impfreec                          0.10      0.05    -0.00     0.21 1.00
## gdpngm                            0.08      0.12    -0.17     0.32 1.00
## uergm                             0.06      0.35    -0.63     0.75 1.00
## yempgm                           -0.22      0.30    -0.82     0.37 1.00
## hhincgm                          -0.19      0.23    -0.64     0.26 1.00
## neggm                            -0.94      0.19    -1.31    -0.56 1.00
## gincdifgm                        -0.01      0.23    -0.46     0.43 1.00
## impfreegm                         0.09      0.25    -0.39     0.61 1.00
## ipeqoptgm                         0.08      0.28    -0.48     0.64 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.25      0.11    -0.46    -0.03 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.14      0.11    -0.36     0.08 1.00
## demunc:trustc                     0.53      0.10     0.32     0.73 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        28933    29397
## demunc                           28412    28131
## trustc                           29392    28755
## stfgovc                          29970    29720
## outcomec                         29230    27438
## ageac                            29925    29108
## gndrfemale                       29473    28584
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    29199    29719
## class5Smallbusinessowners        29869    29312
## class5Skilledworkers             28713    29427
## class5Unskilledworkers           29469    29346
## eduyrsc                          29417    28222
## hincfel2good                     29542    28769
## hincsrca2stateaid                29846    29514
## socialistoldsocialist            29951    29513
## socialistsocialist               29428    29138
## votgovvoted                      29710    28736
## ppltrstc                         29406    29272
## gincdifc                         28822    28854
## freehmsc                         28725    28639
## ipeqoptc                         29702    29111
## impfreec                         29571    29071
## gdpngm                           29403    29312
## uergm                            29309    28132
## yempgm                           29681    28764
## hhincgm                          29050    28614
## neggm                            29348    28836
## gincdifgm                        29855    28682
## impfreegm                        27316    28578
## ipeqoptgm                        28477    28212
## trustc:stfgovc                   29916    29217
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29238    29208
## demunc:trustc                    28550    28830
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.54      0.03     1.49     1.60 1.00    29731    29302
## nu       10.99      1.73     8.27    15.03 1.00    30260    29212
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Copyright:
Benedikt Philipp Kleer, 2022 (Online-Appendix zur Promotion, eingereicht am 14. September 2022, Fachbereich 03, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen).