Nullmodell (2-Level)

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) 
##    Data: cee18 (Number of observations: 4680) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.68      0.11     0.50     0.92 1.00    18934    24634
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##           Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept     5.01      0.14     4.73     5.28 1.00    14891    21448
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     2.38      0.03     2.33     2.43 1.00    29309    27802
## nu       94.37     22.96    57.24   146.59 1.00    28690    29090
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 1

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec 
##    Data: cee18 (Number of observations: 4680) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.74      0.11     0.55     1.00 1.00    13270    19557
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                  Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept            5.01      0.15     4.72     5.31 1.00    10841    16215
## trustc               0.82      0.06     0.71     0.94 1.00    27900    29030
## stfgovc              2.22      0.07     2.07     2.36 1.00    25829    28741
## outcomec             1.24      0.07     1.11     1.37 1.00    28257    27068
## trustc:stfgovc      -0.10      0.11    -0.31     0.11 1.00    28853    28354
## stfgovc:outcomec    -0.10      0.10    -0.30     0.10 1.00    28876    29005
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.40      0.03     1.34     1.45 1.00    27155    28374
## nu        5.59      0.53     4.68     6.75 1.00    27308    28715
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 2

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov 
##    Data: cee18 (Number of observations: 4680) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.74      0.11     0.56     1.00 1.00    18491    24374
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.97      0.18     4.61     5.32 1.00
## trustc                            0.82      0.06     0.71     0.94 1.00
## stfgovc                           2.15      0.08     2.00     2.30 1.00
## outcomec                          1.23      0.07     1.10     1.36 1.00
## ageac                            -0.21      0.13    -0.47     0.04 1.00
## gndrfemale                        0.04      0.05    -0.06     0.13 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.12      0.09    -0.29     0.05 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.05      0.10    -0.15     0.24 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.01      0.08    -0.14     0.16 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers           -0.10      0.09    -0.27     0.08 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.12      0.06    -0.23    -0.02 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.01      0.06    -0.10     0.12 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.05      0.08    -0.11     0.20 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.04      0.13    -0.29     0.21 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.05      0.09    -0.13     0.22 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.20      0.06     0.09     0.32 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.12      0.11    -0.33     0.09 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.09      0.10    -0.29     0.11 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        20234    25578
## trustc                           30677    29433
## stfgovc                          29854    28723
## outcomec                         30370    29519
## ageac                            27057    28549
## gndrfemale                       29490    29596
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    28937    29203
## class5Smallbusinessowners        29719    28818
## class5Skilledworkers             28841    29063
## class5Unskilledworkers           29314    28929
## eduyrsc                          30461    28867
## hincfel2good                     30016    29296
## hincsrca2stateaid                30410    29260
## socialistoldsocialist            28280    27490
## socialistsocialist               28238    29025
## votgovvoted                      29461    29433
## trustc:stfgovc                   29463    29838
## stfgovc:outcomec                 27852    29391
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.39      0.03     1.34     1.45 1.00    28159    28202
## nu        5.60      0.52     4.69     6.75 1.00    28395    29594
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 3

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec 
##    Data: cee18 (Number of observations: 4680) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.74      0.11     0.56     1.01 1.00    18781    24798
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.95      0.18     4.59     5.30 1.00
## trustc                            0.80      0.06     0.69     0.92 1.00
## stfgovc                           2.15      0.08     2.01     2.30 1.00
## outcomec                          1.20      0.07     1.07     1.34 1.00
## ageac                            -0.21      0.13    -0.46     0.05 1.00
## gndrfemale                        0.04      0.05    -0.05     0.14 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.11      0.09    -0.27     0.06 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.05      0.10    -0.14     0.25 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.03      0.08    -0.12     0.19 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers           -0.08      0.09    -0.25     0.10 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.15      0.06    -0.26    -0.04 1.00
## hincfel2good                     -0.00      0.06    -0.12     0.11 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.05      0.08    -0.09     0.21 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.04      0.13    -0.29     0.22 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.05      0.09    -0.13     0.22 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.20      0.06     0.09     0.32 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.07      0.05    -0.03     0.17 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.14      0.05    -0.23    -0.04 1.00
## freehmsc                         -0.03      0.05    -0.13     0.07 1.00
## ipeqoptc                         -0.02      0.05    -0.12     0.08 1.00
## impfreec                          0.07      0.05    -0.03     0.17 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.12      0.11    -0.33     0.10 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.09      0.10    -0.29     0.12 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        17855    23641
## trustc                           29505    28508
## stfgovc                          30388    29371
## outcomec                         29491    29338
## ageac                            29613    29471
## gndrfemale                       30001    29109
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    28898    29879
## class5Smallbusinessowners        30299    29595
## class5Skilledworkers             29355    29759
## class5Unskilledworkers           29163    29272
## eduyrsc                          29159    28238
## hincfel2good                     28962    29757
## hincsrca2stateaid                29589    29959
## socialistoldsocialist            29372    28957
## socialistsocialist               29052    29429
## votgovvoted                      29898    29717
## ppltrstc                         29670    29511
## gincdifc                         29641    29078
## freehmsc                         29716    28823
## ipeqoptc                         30339    29922
## impfreec                         29853    27970
## trustc:stfgovc                   29681    29210
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29358    29011
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.39      0.03     1.33     1.44 1.00    29746    29139
## nu        5.54      0.51     4.64     6.65 1.00    29852    29339
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 4

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec + rankgm + neggm + gincdifgm + impfreegm + ipeqoptgm 
##    Data: cee18 (Number of observations: 4680) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.08      0.04     0.01     0.17 1.00    21953    26903
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         5.01      0.10     4.81     5.21 1.00
## trustc                            0.80      0.06     0.69     0.92 1.00
## stfgovc                           2.15      0.08     2.00     2.30 1.00
## outcomec                          1.21      0.07     1.07     1.34 1.00
## ageac                            -0.19      0.13    -0.44     0.06 1.00
## gndrfemale                        0.05      0.05    -0.04     0.14 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.10      0.09    -0.27     0.07 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.06      0.10    -0.14     0.25 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.04      0.08    -0.11     0.19 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers           -0.07      0.09    -0.25     0.11 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.14      0.06    -0.25    -0.03 1.00
## hincfel2good                     -0.01      0.06    -0.13     0.10 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.05      0.08    -0.10     0.20 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.05      0.13    -0.30     0.19 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.04      0.09    -0.13     0.21 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.20      0.06     0.09     0.32 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.07      0.05    -0.03     0.17 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.14      0.05    -0.23    -0.04 1.00
## freehmsc                         -0.03      0.05    -0.12     0.07 1.00
## ipeqoptc                         -0.02      0.05    -0.12     0.08 1.00
## impfreec                          0.08      0.05    -0.02     0.17 1.00
## rankgm                           -0.01      0.07    -0.14     0.12 1.00
## neggm                            -1.45      0.09    -1.63    -1.27 1.00
## gincdifgm                         0.12      0.09    -0.07     0.30 1.00
## impfreegm                        -0.10      0.07    -0.25     0.04 1.00
## ipeqoptgm                        -0.03      0.08    -0.18     0.13 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.11      0.11    -0.32     0.10 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.08      0.10    -0.28     0.12 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        29298    29512
## trustc                           29587    28630
## stfgovc                          30149    29595
## outcomec                         29424    27747
## ageac                            29459    29136
## gndrfemale                       29529    29472
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    28834    29081
## class5Smallbusinessowners        29158    29836
## class5Skilledworkers             29148    29239
## class5Unskilledworkers           29059    29133
## eduyrsc                          29549    28603
## hincfel2good                     29737    29250
## hincsrca2stateaid                29698    29843
## socialistoldsocialist            29243    29699
## socialistsocialist               29892    29052
## votgovvoted                      29720    28514
## ppltrstc                         28446    28771
## gincdifc                         28735    29230
## freehmsc                         30113    29594
## ipeqoptc                         29992    28267
## impfreec                         28962    28494
## rankgm                           29567    28533
## neggm                            28958    28248
## gincdifgm                        29168    28498
## impfreegm                        29194    29105
## ipeqoptgm                        29670    29029
## trustc:stfgovc                   29607    28356
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29230    29513
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.39      0.03     1.33     1.44 1.00    28281    28948
## nu        5.53      0.51     4.64     6.65 1.00    28420    28134
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Model 5

Modellübersicht

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: stfdem ~ 1 + (1 | nuts2) + trustc + stfgovc + outcomec + stfgovc:trustc + stfgovc:outcomec + ageac + gndr + class5 + eduyrsc + hincfel2 + hincsrca2 + socialist + votgov + ppltrstc + gincdifc + freehmsc + ipeqoptc + impfreec + gdpngm + uergm + yempgm + hhincgm + neggm + gincdifgm + impfreegm + ipeqoptgm 
##    Data: cee18 (Number of observations: 4680) 
##   Draws: 3 chains, each with iter = 44000; warmup = 4000; thin = 4;
##          total post-warmup draws = 30000
## 
## Group-Level Effects: 
## ~nuts2 (Number of levels: 26) 
##               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sd(Intercept)     0.05      0.04     0.00     0.14 1.00    24766    27766
## 
## Population-Level Effects: 
##                               Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat
## Intercept                         4.99      0.10     4.79     5.19 1.00
## trustc                            0.80      0.06     0.68     0.92 1.00
## stfgovc                           2.16      0.08     2.01     2.31 1.00
## outcomec                          1.20      0.07     1.07     1.33 1.00
## ageac                            -0.21      0.13    -0.45     0.04 1.00
## gndrfemale                        0.05      0.05    -0.05     0.14 1.00
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    -0.10      0.09    -0.26     0.07 1.00
## class5Smallbusinessowners         0.06      0.10    -0.14     0.25 1.00
## class5Skilledworkers              0.05      0.08    -0.11     0.19 1.00
## class5Unskilledworkers           -0.06      0.09    -0.24     0.11 1.00
## eduyrsc                          -0.14      0.06    -0.25    -0.03 1.00
## hincfel2good                      0.00      0.06    -0.11     0.11 1.00
## hincsrca2stateaid                 0.06      0.08    -0.09     0.21 1.00
## socialistoldsocialist            -0.05      0.12    -0.29     0.20 1.00
## socialistsocialist                0.05      0.09    -0.12     0.21 1.00
## votgovvoted                       0.20      0.06     0.09     0.32 1.00
## ppltrstc                          0.07      0.05    -0.03     0.18 1.00
## gincdifc                         -0.14      0.05    -0.23    -0.04 1.00
## freehmsc                         -0.03      0.05    -0.13     0.06 1.00
## ipeqoptc                         -0.02      0.05    -0.12     0.08 1.00
## impfreec                          0.08      0.05    -0.02     0.18 1.00
## gdpngm                            0.03      0.07    -0.12     0.17 1.00
## uergm                             0.23      0.11     0.02     0.45 1.00
## yempgm                           -0.08      0.12    -0.32     0.16 1.00
## hhincgm                           0.11      0.09    -0.06     0.28 1.00
## neggm                            -1.43      0.09    -1.60    -1.25 1.00
## gincdifgm                         0.09      0.09    -0.09     0.27 1.00
## impfreegm                        -0.08      0.07    -0.22     0.06 1.00
## ipeqoptgm                        -0.06      0.07    -0.20     0.09 1.00
## trustc:stfgovc                   -0.10      0.11    -0.31     0.11 1.00
## stfgovc:outcomec                 -0.08      0.10    -0.28     0.12 1.00
##                               Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## Intercept                        28650    29042
## trustc                           28111    27298
## stfgovc                          29495    27638
## outcomec                         29044    29414
## ageac                            30732    29280
## gndrfemale                       28083    27895
## class5LowerMgradeserviceclass    29025    27852
## class5Smallbusinessowners        28509    28685
## class5Skilledworkers             29183    29956
## class5Unskilledworkers           28830    27829
## eduyrsc                          28771    28854
## hincfel2good                     27273    27158
## hincsrca2stateaid                28779    28500
## socialistoldsocialist            30489    29909
## socialistsocialist               29349    29015
## votgovvoted                      28869    28525
## ppltrstc                         27946    27812
## gincdifc                         28930    28306
## freehmsc                         28753    29226
## ipeqoptc                         27814    28946
## impfreec                         29024    28493
## gdpngm                           29225    29409
## uergm                            29655    28175
## yempgm                           27623    28265
## hhincgm                          28919    29482
## neggm                            28970    29390
## gincdifgm                        29537    29883
## impfreegm                        28878    29446
## ipeqoptgm                        29267    29514
## trustc:stfgovc                   29492    29470
## stfgovc:outcomec                 29241    29480
## 
## Family Specific Parameters: 
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.39      0.03     1.33     1.44 1.00    29243    28776
## nu        5.52      0.51     4.64     6.63 1.00    30229    29801
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Trace-Plots

Trace-Plot

Autokorrelation-Plots

Autokorrelations-Plot

Posterior-Verteilung

Posterior-Plot

Copyright:
Benedikt Philipp Kleer, 2022 (Online-Appendix zur Promotion, eingereicht am 14. September 2022, Fachbereich 03, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen).